My Oscar Telecast Decompression

Overall, I thought it was a pretty good show. Last year they went without a host by necessity and it worked very well and this time they went with it by choice and again, I think things went as well as can be expected. Those of you who went with my Oscar predictions for best picture, director, and the 2 screenplays, I offer my apologies. I did change my mind on the screenplays later in the week, but that doesn’t help you now. Who knew that the Academy would have such a boner for “Parasite”. Well, I kinda suspected as the week went on that we may see an upset and after finally seeing the movie, I can’t fault the choice. “Parasite” is a pretty terrific film. I commend the Academy for being a little creative with their best pic winner after choosing “Green Book” last year. A nice, but safe choice.

I didn’t care for the opening musical number. It felt a little weird and disjointed. It was probably terrific in the theater, but on TV, I felt it didn’t transfer well. Poor direction didn’t help. It just seemed all over the place. The rest of the musical numbers were fine, but nothing to write home about. The Elton John song seemed to excite me the most out of the 5 songs. There was an Oscar moment that I thought was one of the highlights of the evening and that was the surprise appearance of Eminem’s rousing performance of “Lose Yourself” after 17 years of it winning best song. The was preceded by a very good montage of songs in movies.

The speeches were pretty good. I loved Brad Pitt’s and Laura Dern’s. I knew that they’d be pretty special. I didn’t know what to expect from Jouquin Phoenix, but I didn’t expect him to tell everybody not to drink milk. Kidding aside, he did say some good things and it was from the heart. I especially liked that he ended with a quote from his late brother River. As for Renee’s speech, I think she’s still talking. Holy shit. She also said some nice things, but she kept saying them over and over and I actually went to take a piss and when I came back from another level of the house she was still yammering.

The clothes didn’t impress me but I liked a few of them including Laura Dern, Rebel Wilson, Mindy Kaling and Brie Larson. I also enjoyed Spike Lee’s tux.

There were some funny moments with the presenters, I loved the montages introducing some of the categories and the show did seem to flow very well. They can due away with stars introducing stars as presenters. Just not necessary. I liked seeing the stars from the little scene “Peanut Butter Falcon” as presenters. That was a nice moment.

Oh my goodness Eric, are you done yet? Yes, I am. I picked 22 out of 24 categories correct in one of my Oscar pools and 17/24 in the other. Not too shabby. Now that the 2019 movie campaign is over, I look forward to seeing what’s at the show in 2020.

The Oscars are this Sunday and if you’re in an Oscar pool and not sure who’ll win, don’t worry, I got you covered in the major categories.

The 4 acting awards are forgone conclusions, but let’s go through them anyways.

> Actor- If I had a vote, it would go to Adam Driver, but I don’t. Antonio Banderas, Leo & Jeremy Irons are all deserving, although I would’ve included Eddie Murphy or Adam Sandler instead., but what are you going to do. The winner will Jouquin Phoenix and I’m sure his speech will be interesting and possibly incoherent. Winner- Jouquin Phoenix

> Actress- Renee Zellwegger will win, although I think her performance of Judy Garland was a bit underwhelming. My personal choice would be Charlize Theron as Megyn Kelly in Bombshell. She disappeared in that role and i thought I was watching Kelly herself. Can’t say that about Renee’s Garland. Winner- Renee Zellwegger

> Supp Actor- All great actors, but Brad Pitt will win and he deserves it too. If you look at his IMDB, he really hasn’t made very many clunkers and has been pretty terrific for a long time. He’d get my vote for a very breezy performance in a great film. The part was made for him. Winner- Brad Pitt

> Supp Actress- I like all these actresses, but if you’re going to nominate Margot Robbie, I think she was better in “Once Upon a Time” instead of “Bombshell”, but again, I don’t get a vote. The good news is that Laura Dern will win and I can’t wait to see her speech. A great performance in a great film by a great actress. Winner- Laura Dern

>Director- The best bet is Sam Mendes, but don’t be surprised if it goes to Quentin Tarentino. I believe that Sam Mendes will continue his hot streak and win. “1917” was quite a terrific movie and I think voters will appreciate the way it was shot to make it look like one continuous shot. My choice is Q, but the Winner- Sam Mendes

>Screenplays- These are a bit tough. I like “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” for original, but “Parasite” is really quite brilliant and is very buzzy now. It’ll be one or the other, but I think “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” will win because “Parasite” didn’t resonate with many. Too tough to call. Adapted will be either “Little Women” or possibly “Jojo Rabbit”. The smart money is for “Little Women”, but it could go to “JoJo” to spread a little wealth around and many thought it’s a very cute film. “The Irishman” has an outside shot too. Quite honestly, I have no idea. If I were betting, Winner- “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “Little Women”.

>Int’l Feature- 1 choice. The winner will be “Parasite”

>Picture- This is a toss-up between a few pictures. You can eliminate “JoJo”, “Little Women”, “Ford v Ferrari”, “Joker”, and probably “Marriage Story”. The remaining 4 are all good choices. “Parasite” will win foreign film or whatever they call that category now so I don’t see it winning in both. “The Irishman” is loved by many, but i think “Once Upon a Time” and “1917” are the smart choices. The academy loves to award films about the industry and Q’s films have yet to win a best pic Oscar yet, so he’d be a great choice, but “1917” won the PGA and they are a good precursor. Who knows. Winner- I’m going with “1917” because it has momentum and came out the latest and freshest in voters minds, I will be rooting for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Just a little side note: IMO the best film of 2019 was The Avengers: Endgame” and there was 1 slot available. I would have given the Avengers some love.

The award ceremony is Sunday. Good luck everyone!

Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, JoJo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Best International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

Best Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Two Popes

Best Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Best Original Score
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”, Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”, Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You”, Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown”, Frozen II
“Stand Up”, Harriet

Best Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Make-up/ Hair styling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite

Best Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Costume
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

Best Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk, Run, Cha-Cha

Best Live Action Short Film
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors Window
Saria
A Sister

Best Animated Short
Dcera
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Boy, aren’t you lucky. You’re in an Oscar pool and have no idea who to pick in the main categories. Well, I’m here to help you out.

Supporting Actor-
Mahershala Ali-   Best Bet
Adam Driver
Sam Elliott
Richard E. Grant
Sam Rockwell

Last year Sam Rockwell won and he won’t win 2 years in a row. I also don’t think Richard E. Grant will win either or Adam Driver. Sam Elliott is an interesting choice. He’s been around forever and has been terrific for a long time so if the Academy were to want to give him award him for his career, now would be the time. I still think Mahershala Ali will win. He’s won everything else thus far.

Supporting Actress-
Amy Adams
Marina de Tavira
Regina King– Best Bet
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz

There really is only one choice and that is for Regina King. Emma Stone & Rachel Weisz, both terrific will cancel each other out. Marina de Tavira was a surprise choice and Amy Adams will win some other time. She’s a terrific actress and her time will come.

Best Actor-
Christian Bale
Bradley Cooper
Willem Dafoe
Rami Malek- Best Bet (but not confident)
Viggo Mortensen

This is a good group, but it really comes down to 2 people, Dick Cheney or Freddie Mercury. Because of some incredible hair (or lack there of) and make-up, Christian Bale literally became Dick Cheney, but I think Rami Malek will win this year. I think he had a tougher role to play and has been winning a bunch of awards lately. I’m not positive about this one, but I’m going with my gut. Christian Bale will win again some other time.

Best Actress-
Yalitza Aparicio
Glenn Close- Best Bet
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy

This is the other slam dunk of the evening. Glenn Close has been nominated 7-8 times and has never won. She’ll win and after just watching The Wife, she absolutely deserves it. Not just a career award for her this time. The other actresses in the group were well deserved nominees, but there really isn’t any other choice.

Best Director-
Spike Lee
Pawel Pawlikowski
Yorgos Lanthimos
Alfonso Cuaron- Best Bet
Adam McKay

You’ve got 3 directors with very difficult names to pronounce. I like Spike Lee’s nomination a lot, but the right choice is Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, a real personal film for him. He hasn’t lost yet in any award show that I can see. Roma should do fairly well on Oscar night.

Best Picture-
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma- Best Bet
A Star is Born
Vice

This is a tough category. A Star is Born, my favorite film on the list was riding high back in October & November, but that train has stopped. The momentum is gone. I also can’t picture Vice or BlacKkKlansman winning. Spike Lee may win for screenplay instead. Bohemian Rhapsody is a crowd favorite but I really don’t think it even belongs in this category. Lots of fun, but not best picture of the year. Buy the soundtrack and just watch the last 20 minutes instead. Speaking of favorite, The Favourite is one of those films that critics loved, but many moviegoers didn’t get. I think it’ll do well with categories like costume. Could Black Panther actually pull a victory out of the old & cranky Academy voters asses? Not Likely. This is the thing. Roma, which I liked, is a critic’s darling, a director’s film, a b/w beautifully made movie which the Academy loves to give out Oscars to and award Best Picture. But, it’s a foreign film and foreign films have never won a best picture Oscar. Roma is also nominated for best foreign film. I don’t believe it’ll win for both categories. So I’m predicting, with no confidence, that if “Cold War” wins best foreign language film, then Roma will win best picture. Roma is the favorite to win best foreign film, so if it wins in that category, something else should win best picture. Which film is that? Who the hell knows. I’m guessing “Green Book”. Not that it deserves it, but its that type of film that wins best picture. It checks off a lot of the boxes. What may actually happen is that Roma becomes the first film to win best picture & foreign film.

Other Categories:
Best Animated Film- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Song- “Shallow”

This will be the first telecast without a host since the late 80’s, they’ve got 4 awards being given out during commercials, they’ve given the winners 90 seconds to get to the stage and give their speeches without the benefit of track shoes and are determined to keep the program under or at 3 hours. I have no idea what the show will be like, but I hate the direction that this is going.