Boy, aren’t you lucky. You’re in an Oscar pool and have no idea who to pick in the main categories. Well, I’m here to help you out.
Supporting Actor-
Mahershala Ali- Best Bet
Adam Driver
Sam Elliott
Richard E. Grant
Sam Rockwell
Last year Sam Rockwell won and he won’t win 2 years in a row. I also don’t think Richard E. Grant will win either or Adam Driver. Sam Elliott is an interesting choice. He’s been around forever and has been terrific for a long time so if the Academy were to want to give him award him for his career, now would be the time. I still think Mahershala Ali will win. He’s won everything else thus far.
Supporting Actress-
Amy Adams
Marina de Tavira
Regina King– Best Bet
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz
There really is only one choice and that is for Regina King. Emma Stone & Rachel Weisz, both terrific will cancel each other out. Marina de Tavira was a surprise choice and Amy Adams will win some other time. She’s a terrific actress and her time will come.
Best Actor-
Christian Bale
Bradley Cooper
Willem Dafoe
Rami Malek- Best Bet (but not confident)
Viggo Mortensen
This is a good group, but it really comes down to 2 people, Dick Cheney or Freddie Mercury. Because of some incredible hair (or lack there of) and make-up, Christian Bale literally became Dick Cheney, but I think Rami Malek will win this year. I think he had a tougher role to play and has been winning a bunch of awards lately. I’m not positive about this one, but I’m going with my gut. Christian Bale will win again some other time.
Best Actress-
Yalitza Aparicio
Glenn Close- Best Bet
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy
This is the other slam dunk of the evening. Glenn Close has been nominated 7-8 times and has never won. She’ll win and after just watching The Wife, she absolutely deserves it. Not just a career award for her this time. The other actresses in the group were well deserved nominees, but there really isn’t any other choice.
Best Director-
Spike Lee
Pawel Pawlikowski
Yorgos Lanthimos
Alfonso Cuaron- Best Bet
Adam McKay
You’ve got 3 directors with very difficult names to pronounce. I like Spike Lee’s nomination a lot, but the right choice is Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, a real personal film for him. He hasn’t lost yet in any award show that I can see. Roma should do fairly well on Oscar night.
Best Picture-
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma- Best Bet
A Star is Born
Vice
This is a tough category. A Star is Born, my favorite film on the list was riding high back in October & November, but that train has stopped. The momentum is gone. I also can’t picture Vice or BlacKkKlansman winning. Spike Lee may win for screenplay instead. Bohemian Rhapsody is a crowd favorite but I really don’t think it even belongs in this category. Lots of fun, but not best picture of the year. Buy the soundtrack and just watch the last 20 minutes instead. Speaking of favorite, The Favourite is one of those films that critics loved, but many moviegoers didn’t get. I think it’ll do well with categories like costume. Could Black Panther actually pull a victory out of the old & cranky Academy voters asses? Not Likely. This is the thing. Roma, which I liked, is a critic’s darling, a director’s film, a b/w beautifully made movie which the Academy loves to give out Oscars to and award Best Picture. But, it’s a foreign film and foreign films have never won a best picture Oscar. Roma is also nominated for best foreign film. I don’t believe it’ll win for both categories. So I’m predicting, with no confidence, that if “Cold War” wins best foreign language film, then Roma will win best picture. Roma is the favorite to win best foreign film, so if it wins in that category, something else should win best picture. Which film is that? Who the hell knows. I’m guessing “Green Book”. Not that it deserves it, but its that type of film that wins best picture. It checks off a lot of the boxes. What may actually happen is that Roma becomes the first film to win best picture & foreign film.
Other Categories:
Best Animated Film- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Song- “Shallow”
This will be the first telecast without a host since the late 80’s, they’ve got 4 awards being given out during commercials, they’ve given the winners 90 seconds to get to the stage and give their speeches without the benefit of track shoes and are determined to keep the program under or at 3 hours. I have no idea what the show will be like, but I hate the direction that this is going.
Eric at the Movies 